Arrival-time model
A model estimating historical or simulated order or timing of spread under stated network, pathogen, behavior, detection, and policy assumptions; not a guaranteed future date.
#PUBLIC VOCABULARY
Definitions used across intelligence literacy, evidence, oversight, influence, identity, mental health, personas, and game mechanics. A definition explains site usage; it does not replace jurisdiction-specific law or individual clinical assessment.
16 terms shown.
A model estimating historical or simulated order or timing of spread under stated network, pathogen, behavior, detection, and policy assumptions; not a guaranteed future date.
#A declared relationship showing that one scenario premise relies on another condition, actor capability, timing rule, measurement claim, or institutional response.
#A spatial model in which cells update from local states and neighborhood rules. Grid, neighborhood, resolution, and update order are substantive assumptions.
#A labeled branch describing what might have happened under different assumptions or events. It must remain separate from the observed record.
#A collection of model runs, structures, datasets, or parameter sets used to represent uncertainty. Members should not be treated as independent when they share the same evidence and assumptions.
#A declared what-if case used to examine assumptions and consequences; it is neither historical evidence nor a forecast.
#An explanation of meaning, cause, pattern, or implication built from facts and assumptions. It must be labeled and revisable.
#A relationship produced or represented by a model under stated inputs, assumptions, comparison class, validation, uncertainty, and transfer limits.
#The date or condition by which a source, assumption, indicator, or branch must be rechecked before reuse because currentness and context may have changed.
#A conditional exploration of what may follow if stated assumptions hold. A scenario is not automatically a forecast or an observed event.
#A versioned record that decomposes one fictional scenario track into explicit premises, enabling conditions, indicators, countervailing forces, evidence states, and correction rules.
#A state indicating that a baseline or assumption must be re-reviewed before reuse because its date, source, context, or applicability may be stale.
#A structured collection of explicitly fictional planning cases with stable identifiers, assumptions, uncertainties, source baselines, and visible non-prediction labels.
#The mistaken assumption that a symbol carries the same meaning across audiences; even humanitarian signs can have different historical connotations.
#Testing how model outputs change when parameters, structures, inputs, or assumptions vary within plausible ranges.
#The source-authored proposition that an initiating event or precursor occurs with sufficient timing and scale to open a fictional branch.
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